NAWAZ SHARIF’s PREDICAMENT

      Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif born 25 Dec.1949  is a Pakistani politician and industrialist who is the current Prime Minister of Pakistan; previously he served as Prime Minister for two non-consecutive terms from Nov. 1990 to July 1993 and from Feb. 1997 to October 1999.  He is the president of Pakistan Muslim League (N), which is currently Pakistan's largest political party, and has formed the government.  As owner of  ‘Ittefaq Group’, a leading business conglomerate, he is also one of the country's wealthiest men.  He is a graduate from Punjab University Law College and resides in Islamabad with his wife and has three children, two sons and one daughter.

      The May 2013 Election results are self-evident.  PML(N) won majority seats of National Assembly and also the House of Punjab, while  PPP  has taken the Sind Assembly, PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkha, and Nationalist parties in Baluchistan. Having nearly won an outright majority seats in the national assembly, Sharif  is set to become Pakistan’s prime minister -- his third time at bat. The other two were both brought to an end by the military, one indirectly through a presidential decree in 1993 and the other through the coup led by General Pervez Musharraf in 1999.

After Benazir’s assassination, Asif Ali Zardari succeeded Pervez Musharraf in 2008 elections. He maneuvered Musharraf out of the presidency and into exile within months of the PPP’s success in the 2008 elections.

      Now five years later, it is Nawaz Sharif’s turn. Musharraf, meanwhile, remains under house arrest, having returned from exile under the absurd assumption of a homecoming worthy of a would-be national savior.  Imprisoned and then exiled for years after the coup, Sharif appears to have learned the right lessons. It may seem unkind to see the new mandate as a consequence of short memories. It’s worth noting, besides, that whereas the PML-N’s thumping majority in 1997 was based on an abysmally low turnout, this time about 60percent of registered voters are believed to have cast their ballots. This time the inefficacy of the PPP-led government — notably on the economic front, and specifically in terms of its proven inability to tackle the energy crisis — inevitably propelled a momentum for change.

      Sharif has publicly opposed any role for the military in politics. As an industrialist with a strong base in the business community, he has long been committed to mending fences with India, as a way both to boost trade and reduce the domestic political influence of the military, which has been the main beneficiary of the two countries’ conflict over Kashmir. 

     The real test of Sharif’s allegiance to democratic norms will not just be how he handles the military, but how he deals with his opponents in the PPP, the PTI, the MQM and the Baloch nationalists. How he deals with the media will be another test. After all, his last government is known for trying to muzzle criticism and intimidate journalists. Sharif’s biggest challenges are likely to be closer to home — fixing the shattered economy, ending an appalling energy crisis, coping with poverty, tackling the home-grown Taliban insurgency, nationalist insurgency in Baluchistan, and, above all, international and domestic terrorism, including the ongoing pogrom against Pakistan’s Shia by Sunni militant groups.  

    The higher turnout can prove to be a double-edged sword for Nawaz Sharif: the heightened public expectations of government performance could set in a public disaffection quickly.  Still, if the Sharif government can fend off incursions and at least do better than the PPP, Pakistan’s democracy and Nawaz Sharif will have a chance to pull through.

      No doubt, the real test will start when he will be dealing with the day-to-day affairs of the government, but so far he has played his cards well. It is not the same Pakistan Sharif had left behind in 1999. Today’s Pakistan is equipped with a vibrant media which is not ready to comprise its freedom even with a military dictator. We can hope better, but the topsy-turvy history of this country is full of many shattered hopes. For Sharif, the third term of prime minister ship would not be a smooth sailing because the country at present is abound with insurmountable challenges of different kinds. Among stiffest challenges are: energy crisis, faltering economy, inside and outside security threats, drone attacks, corruption and lawlessness. Eradication of corruption and ensuring good governance will not be easy tasks in the presence of a historically stubborn and corrupt bureaucratic-establishment and the absence of any system of rule of law. Cessation of drone attacks on Pakistan soil will not be an easy task for Nawaz Sharif so long Pakistan remains committed with the United States on War on Terror and so long the in-house al-Qaeda and Taliban are committed to fight against the United States.

      We cannot expect any instant magical change in the political debris accumulated during the past 66 years. The people and the country need to sustain the mess with patience and sacrifices for a long time.