The Yemeni Crisis began with the 2011–12
revolution against President Ali
Abdullah Saleh when he lifted sizeable subsidies on
consumer items. He had led Yemen for more than two decades. After Saleh left office in early 2012, the
government led by Saleh's former vice president, Abd
Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, struggled to unite the
fractious political landscape of the country and ward off threats both from Al
Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Houthi
militants that had been waging a protracted insurgency
in the north for years. In 2014, Houthi fighters swept
into the capital of Sana'a and forced Hadi to negotiate a
"unity government" with other political factions. The rebels
continued to apply pressure on the weakened government until, after his
presidential palace and private residence came under attack from the militant
group, Hadi resigned along with his ministers in January 2015. The following
month, the Houthis declared themselves in control of the government, dissolving Parliament and installing an interim Revolutionary
Committee led by Mohammed
Ali al-Houthi, a cousin of Houthi leader Abdul-Malik
al-Houthi. However, Hadi escaped to Aden, where he declared he remains Yemen's legitimate
president, proclaimed the country's temporary capital, and called on loyal
government officials and members of the military to rally to him.
Within days, however, a Houthi-led military campaign wrested much of southern Yemen from Hadi's loyalists,
advancing to the city of Aden on 25 March. Hadi slipped from Aden and arrived in Riyadh on 26 March,
reportedly by way of Oman. He was greeted by the
Saudi Defense minister, Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud. Hadi
asked Saudis to launch airstrikes against Houthi positions throughout the country.
Saudi Arabia
After Hadi's foreign minister, called on the Gulf Cooperation
Council to assist the beleaguered government in Aden, Saudi Arabia began
a military buildup on its border with Yemen in late March 2015,
according to US intelligence. On
25 March, Saudi Arabia began launching airstrikes targeting military camps, air bases, weapons depots
and rebel headquarters.
Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Sudan also
joined the campaign, with Egyptian naval ships moving to block the Bab
al-Mandeb strait.
Iran Support
The government of Iran praised the Houthi uprising as an
extension of the Iranian Revolution, with President Hassan
Rouhani stating that the Islamic Republic was supporting "peace
and stability" in Yemen. On
28 February, Houthi-controlled state media announced that Iran and Yemen signed
an agreement to open direct flight routes between the two countries. The following month, a Houthi
spokesperson said the group had secured pledges from Iran to provide oil to
Yemen, expand its ports, and construct power plants in the country.
United
States
The
United States reportedly withdrew the last of its special forces in Yemen in
March 2015. The United Kingdom
followed suit, with its remaining troops being airlifted out of Sana'a.
According to U.S. Undersecretary of
Defense for Intelligence, the United States established an intelligence
relationship with the Houthis to counter Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The U.S. ambassador to Yemen, Matthew
H. Tueller, met with
Hadi after his escape to Aden and said the U.S. still viewed him as the
"legitimate" president despite the Houthi takeover. However, the US
said it had no plans to relocate its shuttered embassy from Sana'a.
Pakistan’s Response to the Crisis
“Saudi Arabia had asked Pakistan, an ally, to contribute
ships, aircraft and troops to a military campaign it has launched against the
Houthis” BBC News, Apr. 10, reported. Pakistan Parliament adopted a
resolution calling all sides to resolve their differences peacefully in a
“deteriorating security and humanitarian situation” which has “implications for
peace and stability of the region.” It
said: “Parliament desires that Pakistan should maintain neutrality in the Yemen
conflict so as to be able to play a proactive diplomatic role to end the
crisis.”
Pakistan’s non-participation in Operation Decisive Storm
against Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen will not affect the coalition’s
work, the Saudi Defense Ministry said Friday, Apr.10.
Saudi Airstrikes
The Saudi-led coalition says its
aircraft have only targeted military camps, air bases, weapons depots and rebel
headquarters, but civilian areas have often been hit, the BBC News says.
The UN estimates that more than 560 people have been
killed, many of them civilians, in air strikes, fighting and bomb attacks in
Yemen since 19 March, BBC report of Apr.8, 2015 says. Iran has denied
accusations it is providing military aid to the Houthis.
The crisis in Yemen is one with many
different groups. The Houthis, who now control the capital of Sana and much of
the nation's northern and southern regions, are engaged in a bitter fight
against some Sunni tribes in the country, and clashes have claimed hundreds of
lives. On the other hand, the militants of al-Qaida affiliate in the region
have vowed to eradicate the Shiite fighters with attacks and suicide bombings.
The Islamic State militants, too, are claiming a role in the violence, and last
Friday Apr.10, carried out multiple suicide bombings at two of the capital's
Shiite mosques killing at
least 137 people. This will, no doubt,
intensify sectarian rivalries and invite bloody reprisals.
At the moment, Yemen’s once quiet streets and civic centers have
turned into spaces for militias and unknown suicide bombers. In Sana’a, no one
but death walks freely.
Yemen is
sliding toward a civil war with ominous elements of a sectarian feud, a
regional proxy conflict, the attempted return of its ousted authoritarian, and
the expansion of anti-Western extremist groups like Al-Qaeda and the Islamic
State eager to capitalize on the chaos.
Possible Repercussions
Yemen is
home to al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which Washington has viewed
as the most lethal branch of the global network founded by Osama bin
Laden. President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi
was a close U.S. ally in the fight against al-Qaida, but he fled Yemen on
Wednesday as his forces were routed by the Houthis, and loyalists of former
President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
The
Houthis, who control the capital Sana’a and nine of Yemen's 21 provinces, are
sworn enemies of al-Qaida, but they are also hostile to the U.S. The rise of the Shiite Houthis has helped
al-Qaida rally support among Yemen's Sunni majority.
Hadi's
government had been a crucial partner in America's global counter-terrorism
strategy and its fight against Al-Qaida. The loss of Yemen as a base for American
counterterrorism training carries major implications not just in Yemen, but
throughout a region that officials say poses the most grievous threat to United
States global interests and to the country itself.
US national
interest demands that its counterterrorism against Al-Qaida and Islamic State is
reached to a successful end. While the Houthis
fight against Al-Qaida and Islamic State can be supportive to the US objectives
it can set back the Gulf Cooperation Council’s attempt to reinstate the ousted regime
of Hadi in Yemen.
The Saudi
airstrikes have transformed Yemen into another arena for the regional struggle
between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which also back opposite sides in Syria's civil
war.
The Houthis
generally are a part of the Zaydi Shiite minority, which accounts for about a
third of Yemen's population. Shiite Iran supports the rebels and has condemned
the airstrikes, but the Houthis deny receiving arms from Tehran.
The Gulf
Cooperation Council — made up of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab
Emirates, Qatar and Oman — backs Hadi, and all but Oman is taking part in the
intervention in Yemen. Senior Egyptian security and military officials say
Saudi Arabia and Egypt will lead a ground operation against the rebels and
their allies after the airstrikes.
The
turmoil has allowed supporters of the Islamic State extremist group to gain a
foothold in Yemen, where IS-inspired militants killed more than 130 people in
the previous week in suicide attacks on two Houthi-linked mosques in Sana’a.
Such
attacks, along with the Saudi intervention, could add a toxic sectarian
dimension to what until now has mainly been a political conflict. An openly
sectarian war like those in Syria or Iraq would likely attract foreign fighters
and external support for the rival sides, resulting in an even bloodier and
more intractable conflict.
What began as a peaceful
struggle to unseat a Yemeni strongman four years ago and then mutated into
civil strife now risks spiraling into a full-blown war between regional rivals
Saudi Arabia and Iran over a country that lies at the choke point of one of the
world’s major oil supply routes.
Not since the 1960s has there been a time when so many Arab
states and factions were engaged in so many wars in Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon,
Libya and now in Yemen, in quite such a confusing configurations, geopolitical
analysts say.
For Saudi Arabia, which regards itself as the guardian of Sunni
interests in the region, the advance of the Shiite Houthis represented far more
than a threat to a Sunni ally, analysts say.
The Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement holds sway in Lebanon;
Iranian-backed fighters have been instrumental in propping up President Bashar
al-Assad in Syria; and in Iraq, Iranian-backed militias wield power over more
territory than the Iraqi army.
With its intervention in Yemen, Saudi Arabia is serving
notice that it will no longer tolerate Iran’s unchecked expansion — nor
will it count on the United States to protect its interests in the Middle East,
Mustafa Alani of the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center says.
“It started with Lebanon, then Syria, then Iraq and now Yemen.
It’s like a domino, and Yemen is the first attempt to stop the domino,” he
said. “Now there is an awakening in the region, a counter-strategy, and Yemen
is the testing ground. It is not just about Yemen, it is about changing the
balance of power in the region” say Mustafa Alani.
An Iranian parliamentarian told the semi-official Fars News
Agency that the Houthis possess missiles capable of hitting up to 500
kilometers, or about 300 miles, inside Saudi Arabia. An unidentified official
quoted by the agency said the Houthis were preparing to block access to the Bab
al-Mandeb strait, which commands access to the Red Sea, through which the
Egyptian warships are sailing.
So far, however, Iran’s threats have been largely rhetorical.
Analysts doubt Iran would be prepared to jeopardize the substantial influence
it has acquired elsewhere in the region for the sake of Yemen, a far lesser
prize than Iraq, Syria or Lebanon, where its network of alliances brings access
to the Mediterranean and the borders of Israel.
It’s hard to see how the Saudi airstrikes will bring this to a
decisive end that will restore their people in Sana’a and diminish ISIS and
al-Qaeda. In Libya, airstrikes polarized the existing civil war and opened the
way for ISIS, and I’m afraid of the same thing happening in Yemen.
UN Security Council Resolution
The U.N. Security Council passed a Resolution on Tuesday April
14, imposing an arms embargo on the leaders of the Shiite group, along with
former President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his son. The Security Council
resolution was approved in a 14-0 vote, with Russia abstaining. Moscow had
insisted on an arms embargo on all parties to the conflict, and Russia’s U.N.
Ambassador complained that the resolution did not require all sides of the
conflict “to swiftly halt fire.” The resolution demands that all Yemeni
parties, especially the Houthis, end violence and return swiftly to UN-led
peace talks aimed at a political transition. It makes no mention of the
airstrikes.
ISRAR HASAN
16 April 2015
ihasanfaq@yahoo.com
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